College Football Midseason Recap
We’ve officially (unofficially?) reached the halfway point of the 2025 college football season, and what better week to recap the season, than the Eve of Conference USA Tuesday?
The biggest surprise of the season to me has to be Penn State. Sixteen days ago the Nittany Lions were an overtime possession away from knocking off #6 Oregon and cementing themselves as a legitimate national title contender. Today? They’re without their starting quarterback, their head coach, and in the middle of what could be a six game losing streak. Another surprise from the preseason Top 10 is Clemson. Losing to one of LSU or Georgia Tech wouldn’t have been surprising. But three losses before the calendar hit October sure was.
It’s not all doom and gloom though. While the SEC doesn’t have a top 3 team at the halfway mark for the first time since Nixon was in office, they do boast 10 of the top 18 in the coaches poll. Texas A&M being the leader in the clubhouse of the SEC is a bit surprising, although Vanderbilt starting the season 5-1 may be just as surprising. Texas Tech is proving that money can buy both players and happiness. Memphis sits at 6-0 and will be favored in every remaining home game, and Brent Key may have the best team in the state of Georgia.
Second Half Expectations?
Indiana isn’t going anywhere. The second half of their schedule is now as manageable as they could have hoped. After pulling the upset over Oregon, the Hoosiers will now be favored by double digits in each of their remaining six games. Michigan St, UCLA (resurgent but still bad), at Maryland, at Penn St, Wisconsin, and at Purdue. UCLA has won consecutive games as an underdog with improved play from Nico Iam– Nico. Maryland has shown an ability to move the football and point up points, but their defense is bleh. The road trip to Penn St is now looking like cakewalk. Go ahead and put Indiana in the playoff in permanent marker.
Notre Dame wins out and ends up in the college football playoff. Sound familiar? This years version of the run the table script had an 0-2 Irish on the way out looking in. Despite starting the season with two tough losses (2 losses by 4 combined points), the Irish are actually favorites to make the playoff at every major sportsbook. If the Irish hold serve this weekend against USC, they too will be double digit favorites the rest of the way in.
Texas A&M is 6-0 and inside the top 5 of both the coaches and AP poll. Unfortunately they’re starting the second half of the season on a three game conference road trip with a season finale against rival Texas in Austin. I’m not telling you to go bet your children’s college fund on the Aggies NOT making the playoff, but I’d at least bet one mortgage payment. Absolutely brutal schedule setup by the SEC here.
Tennessee versus Vanderbilt could be for a playoff spot for the Vols. Not to entirely overlook Oklahoma or Florida, but the offense has improved with Joey Aguilar under center and Josh Heupel’s team is set to make a second consecutive playoff if they finish the season at 10-2. If the Vols lose Saturday at Alabama, obviously the rest of the season becomes must win. Fortunately for Tennessee they will be favored to do exactly that the remainder of the season.
No one enjoys yo-yo’s as much as Lane Kiffin. The Rebels are priced to make the playoff at major sportsbooks across the US, but if I had a nickel every time Kiffin had a top 10 team and lost a couple of games he wasn’t supposed to I’d still be poor, but would have a bunch of nickels. After struggling with a less than spectacular Washington State team this past Saturday, Kiffin will have to find his focus as the Rebels go to Georgia and Oklahoma the next two weeks, before a mid-November clash with Florida.
Ohio State and Miami are in. Write it down, put it in a drawer. The Buckeyes will be favored by over 100 points their last six games. The finale at Michigan has proven tough for Ryan Day, but even on the road, this Ohio State team should prevail. And if they don’t? The only significant loss (ok, rivalry I get it) will be in seeding. See you in December. Miami is in a similar boat as OSU. They end the season with consecutive road games, but it’s to Virginia Tech and Pitt. The trip to DFW versus SMU could be a “trap” sandwiched between Stanford and Syracuse, but the Hurricanes are still a touchdown favorite in my model there. The Canes can afford one slip up, and if anyone is capable it’s Cristobal (see Georgia Tech ’23; Syracuse ’24), but even with Mediocre Mario, Jordan Beck looks to be playoff bound yet again.
