NFL Survivor Week 1: Picks, Strategy

The NFL season has arrived. Tonight, the Dallas Cowboys take on the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles in an opening night divisional bout.

This season, I’ve entered the $1,000,000 NFL Survivor Contest on BetOnline. It’s an affordable contest that’s just $30 for your first entry with discounts for additional entries (you may purchase up to 25). New for the contest this season is a Thanksgiving/Black Friday week, similar to the popular Circa Survivor in Las Vegas.

My pick is below, skip ahead if you want to see it. But first, I wanted to welcome first-time Survivor Pool players and give context of why everyone’s opinion is wrong except your own.

What is a Survivor Pool?

A survivor pool is a popular NFL betting contest where participants pick one team each week to win their game outright (no spread involved). The catch? Once you pick a team, you can’t use them again for the rest of the season. If your chosen team loses, you’re eliminated from the pool. The goal is to be the last player standing, or to split the prize if multiple players survive until the end.

For example, in BetOnline’s $1,000,000 NFL Survivor Contest, you’d pay $30 to enter and select one team for Week 1, like the Philadelphia Eagles to beat the Dallas Cowboys. If the Chiefs win, you advance to Week 2 but can’t pick Philadelphia again.

In BetOnline’s contest, the special Thanksgiving/Black Friday week means you must pick 19 teams to survive until the end.

NFL Survivor Strategy

Across the board, you’ll hear a lot of the same strategy talk about NFL Survivor Pools from people who’ve never won one. It’s a popular topic to pontificate on. Heck, here I am writing my thoughts. Deepest run I’ve ever had was week 14 a few years ago when the season was 17 weeks long.

Conventional Wisdom

• Avoid Divisional Games: A lot of outlets and touts will tell you to avoid divisional games. They’ll say things like they’re unpredictable, both teams know each other, etc.
• Avoid Road Games: You’ll hear people say to stay away from road games. They’ll tell you travel and home field advantage are too dangerous to survive.
• Balance Odds and Future Value: Most people use spreads and moneyline odds to determine who’s an automatic lock. But every year, without fail, there’s a great team favored by 9 or more that loses outright, crushing large chunks of a survivor pool at once. Plus, you have to consider what teams you may need at the end if you survive late into the contest.
• Play Against The Pool: It’s repeated over and over that you need to find plays that are against the grain. You’ll hear things like if 15% of the pool is taking the Eagles, you should take the Cowboys.
• Special Added Week: Finally, you have to be cautious in pools that have added weeks to not lose because you have no teams left to choose from. For me, I have to be very careful to leave a few options open for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday week as there are only 8 teams available.

2025 Schedule Notes

I took a look at the entire NFL schedule. A few things popped out to me.

• Week 17 is a doozy. Most of the predicted best teams are playing each other. You’ll have to rely on a good team beating an above average team or a below average team beating a worse team.
• Thanksgiving/Black Friday Week: There’s really only three good options–Kansas City (at Dallas), Philadelphia (vs. Chicago), and Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati).
• Week 5 will take guts. Nearly all of the bad teams are hosting games this weekend. Good teams are playing average teams. I see one matchup I like more than the rest, but not by much.
• Week 1 will lose valuable teams. Based on the early numbers, I think too many contestants are using teams they’ll need later in the year.

If there was one piece of advice I could share, look ahead at the schedule. If you make a deep run, don’t let it slip away because you didn’t know late-season matchups.

Assuming They’re Wrong

I’m a big of fan of being a contrarian, but being a contrarian for the sake of not copying the rest of the survivor pool will be a mistake.

If you apply the conventional wisdom, picking big favorites, avoiding divisional and road games, etc. You’ll run into the same issue–if you make a deep run you’re still going to have to rely on the Las Vegas Raiders to win.

There’s a matter of luck involved.

My game plan this season is much more dynamic than years past. There are teams I’m saving, specifically for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday week. But I have to take some big risks just to get there and hope that the rest of the contest pool is zigging when I’m zagging.

Surviving Survivor

All of this nonsense is to say one thing. I love trying different whiskeys. There’s a saying in the hobby, “The best whiskey is the whiskey you like to drink, the way you like to drink it.”

I think that applies for survivor pools. The published strategies only get you so deep into the schedule. Many of them are written by people who have never survived. There’s a real possibility I’ll be out this week.

Make your survivor pick based on your conviction, not because of something someone else tells you.

NFL Week 1 Survivor Picks

This season I’m doing three survivor picks across multiple entries. One will be high-risk, one will be the optimal play, and one will be based on conventional wisdom.

• High-Risk: Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers)
• Optimal: Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants)
• Conventional: Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)