NFL Survivor Week 3: Picks, Strategy

Well…well…well… luck was on the Dallas Cowboys side last Sunday. Last week, I had Dallas as my main survivor pick, along with one entry on Baltimore, and two with Arizona. By some miracle all three picks survived.

NFL Week 2 Recap

This season I’m playing the $1,000,000 NFL Survivor Contest on BetOnline. The contest had 35,498 entries, after Sunday 31,170 remain. Update: After Monday night football, 29,821 remain. There’s no doubt that those of us who chose the Dallas Cowboys got all the luck.

From the start, the New York Giants played like the better team, taking the lead into halftime 13-10. The Cowboys would take the lead for the first time in the 3rd quarter, going up 17-13. New York responded with a field goal, closing out the quarter trailing 17-16.

That’s when all of the fireworks began. Dallas expanded their lead to 20-16, early in the 4th quarter before we saw both teams trade five touchdowns. New York retook the lead 23-20 with 12:07 to remaining. 6 minutes later, the Cowboys scored, 27-23. Just before the 2-minute warning, New York went up 30-27.

As the future of my survivor picks, along with thousands of others, looked like it was slipping away, Dak Prescott connect with George Pickens to score with just 52 seconds left on the clock. Surely, this is the miracle we needed. But wait. Russel Wilson connects for a 48-yard pass to Malik Nabers. TOUCHDOWN! It’s 37-34, 25 seconds left on the clock.

The Cowboys somehow get it into “field goal position” as Brand Aubrey kicked a game-tying 64-yard field goal. What on earth just happened. The chaos didn’t stop. As soon as overtime starts, Dak and the Cowboys are forced to punt it away, the miracle was surely over. NO. The teams trade possessions and as the clock expired Brand Aubrey kicked a 46-yard field goal. Winner, winner, you’re a survivor.

In the afternoon, the Arizona Cardinals almost had one of the most incredible choke jobs since New England beat the Falcons in the Superbowl. They were up 27-3 in the third quarter, all the survivors were feeling good, then suddenly it was 27-9, then 27-15, then 27-22, and the Carolina Panthers got the ball back on the onside kick. Here we go again!

By a miracle, the Cardinals hang on to a game that should never have been close. Week 2 should have seen over 40% of the field eliminated. But instead, just a few percent of the field lost. A winner of survivor will look back at this week and remember just how close they were to being out of the contest.

Top Picks in Week 2

1. Baltimore Ravens (26%)
2. Arizona Cardinals (21%)
3. Dallas Cowboys (17%)
4. LA Rams (9%)
5. Detroit Lions (8%)

Previous Survivor Picks

Week	High-Risk	Optimal	Conventional
Week 1	Jacksonville Jaguars	Washington Commanders	Denver Broncos
Week 2	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Baltimore Ravens

NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

There are a lot of heavy favorites in week 3. Buffalo, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Seattle all opened as touchdown or more favorites. Kansas City, Baltimore, and Washington are opened as -5.5 or better.

• High-Risk/Optimal: Seattle Seahawks (vs. New Orleans Saints)
• Conventional: Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Seattle Seahawks

This week, my gut instinct is that the Seattle Seahawks will be both the optimal and high-risk selection. Seattle didn’t look great at home against the 49ers in week 1. Seeing the 49ers struggle in week 2 (albeit without Brock Purdy or George Kittle) against the Saints made me adjust my opinion on Seattle. Seattle traveled across the country and beat Pittsburgh 31-17. If you negate the awkward kickoff touchdown, this game was much closer than it appeared.

New Orleans is bad. Don’t misunderstand. But they have star power and talent that hasn’t quite blossomed this season. Week one they lost at home to Arizona 20-13 and 26-21 vs San Francisco last Sunday. My fear is that the Saints will catch a team napping. They’ll overlook a bad win-loss record and be stunned by a talented team that’s just not quite winning yet. This is why I consider this a high-risk selection.

On the other hand, you’re probably not going to have another chance to use Seattle again. You need 19 teams to win the BetOnline contest (20 if you’re playing Circa Survivor). Using Seattle week 3 allows you to save top teams like Green Bay, Buffalo, and Baltimore.

Seattle is most likely going to be the most popular selection this week. Part of this is because when else can you use them? In my opinion, only 3, may 4 options, and a few of them aren’t viable because of travel. Week 6 at Jacksonville, Week 12 at Tennessee, and Week 17 at Carolina is putting a lot of trust in an average west coast team flying across the country. You could make an argument for Week 14 vs. Minnesota, but if Minnesota figures out their offensive woes, it might not even be an option.

I’ll have the majority of my entries on Seattle. I’m going to be holding my nose the entire time.

Buffalo Bills

The most obvious play to survive week 3 is playing the Buffalo Bills at home on Thursday night against a Miami Dolphins team that looks utterly defeated.

After getting a donut on the opening weekend against Indianapolis, losing 40-0. The Dolphins headed home and hosted the New England Patriots. Though the score finished 33-27, and the Fins even lead midway through the 4th quarter, this game never felt like the Dolphins had any control. Also worth noting, Josh McDaniel is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season.

Meanwhile, the Bills absolutely demolished the New York Jets 30-10, who looked pretty good against the Pittsburgh Steelers (which is another mark on Seattle’s win). What can we take away? Josh Allen and company are really, really good. There are holes in their defense, no questions, but…they’re playing the Dolphins.

The reason to not play the Bills here is pretty simple, they have a lot of value later in the season. Week 4 vs. Saints, Week 5 vs. Patriots, Week 8 at Panthers, Week 16 at Browns, and Week 18 vs. Jets.

I’ll be using Buffalo in one of my entries to make it through to Week 4, but so will a bunch of others. If you want the contrarian angle, save the Bills and look at Tampa Bay or Washington this week. But if you want the surest thing to surviving the week, the odds say that the Bills have a an 80% probability of winning.

Week 3 Estimates

1. Seattle Seahawks (35%)
2. Buffalo Bills (20%)
3. Tampa Bay (15%)
4. Green Bay (15%)
5. Washington Commanders (10%)

Post was updated on September 16, 2025 to include contestants eliminated from Monday night.