NFL Survivor Week 4: Picks, Strategy

All three entries have survived. NFL Survivor Week 4 gets a little tougher. This week we’ll be on a winless team, one of the best teams, and betting against a team that looks completely lost without their star quarterback.

NFL Week 3 Recap

The $1,000,000 NFL Survivor Contest on BetOnline has 23,350 remaining entires after the first big upsets of the season. We saw the Green Bay Packers (+7.5) lose outright to the stingy Cleveland Browns and the Atlanta Falcons post a donut against the Carolina Panthers. Collectively, 7,820 entries were eliminated.

My picks Seattle and Buffalo made it through with ease. Seattle was so dominate against the New Orlean Saints, I stopped paying attention at halftime when the birds were up 38-6. The complete opposite of what I experienced in Week 2.

Top Picks in Week 3

1. Seattle Seahawks (31%)
2. Buffalo Bills (19%)
3. Green Bay Packers (13%)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8%)
5. Atlanta Falcons (6%)

Previous Survivor Picks

Week	High-Risk	Optimal	Conventional
Week 1	Jacksonville Jaguars	Washington Commanders	Denver Broncos
Week 2	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Baltimore Ravens
Week 3	Seattle Seahawks	Seattle Seahawks	Buffalo Bills

NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks

There’s not a lot good options in week four and we’re going to be on some popular picks this weekend.

• High-Risk: Denver Broncos
• Optimal: Buffalo Bills
• Conventional: Houston Texans

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos make a lot of sense in this spot at home against a banged up Cincinnati Bengals team that got obliterated by the Minnesota Vikings last week. There’s value holding Denver until Week 7 vs. NY Giants, Week 8 vs. Dallas, and Week 10 vs. Las Vegas. However, those weeks all have quite a few high winning percentage games that will still be available to me.

I see this is as an opportunity to take a pretty good Denver Broncos team at home against a depleted Cincy team that’s showing signs that they’re on their way down. It could be a trap, but I’ll take the chance here, using Denver on my High-Risk entry.

Buffalo Bills

Once Again, Buffalo is the easy pick. They’re hosting the New Orleans Saints as a -16.5 favorite. You won’t find a more lopsided opportunity this season. Buffalo has signs that they’ll have issues down the road, particularly on defense. Their offense is awesome and this should be a cakewalk.

You could make strong arguments for saving the Bills, but at some point you have to just survive. You also don’t know when injuries will hit. I think taking the Bills here on the Optimal entry makes sense. We’ve only used one “good” team so far and I think getting through to week five is worth losing a valuable team.

Houston Texans

The highest risk selection to take this week is the winless Houston Texans. I’m going to use Houston as my conventional pick because the Buffalo and Denver have already been used. At this point, the conventional pick is worth the least amount because of the high-value picks already used.

Why Houston? There’s simply no other spot on the schedule that you could use this team. I’m only using them in one of my 5 remaining entries. Instead of using a team like Detroit or the Chargers, I’m taking the gamble that the Texans will beat their weaker division rival. It’s not smart, but if luck is on my side, we’ll make it through to week 5.

Week 4 Estimates

1. Buffalo Bills (35%)
2. Houston Texans (20%)
3. Detroit Lions (15%)
4. Denver Broncos (15%)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10%)