This NFL season was a strange one in terms of betting. I virtually quit betting pro football in week nine. The reason–I didn’t understand the NFL’s rules anymore.
I found success early in the season as I backed the San Francisco 49ers every week. The sportsbook undervalued the Niners for a good six weeks. The markets caught up; the rules became blurry, my interest in betting pro football dwindled.
I have heard a lot of bettors discuss how they reduce the number of bets as the season progresses and the markets adjust.
For me, two things led me to stop betting football the back-half of the season. First, I saw my edge decrease. Second, the amount of bad officiating and how the NFL’s rules are confusing. I stopped betting because I didn’t want to deal with the human-error variable.
As we approach Super Bowl LIV, two teams I followed closely and bet on/against throughout the season meet in Miami. The Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 54) against the San Francisco 49ers. The potential for a good championship game.
My pick for the Super Bowl is a gut feeling, nothing more. I usually have stats and analytics to back up my opinion, not for this one.
I don’t force bets on big games. I don’t see a significant edge on the Super Bowl because I believe either team is capable of winning it. I’m not a prop guy in the NFL, and that’s where all the edges live.
Yet, as I watched the AFC and NFC championships, I was impressed more by one team and one player–Patrick Mahomes. As the 49ers routed the Packers and opening lines popped up around Las Vegas, without question, I bet the Cheifs.
Through the playoffs, Mahomes has shown the leadership ability to rebound from large deficits. He’s the best. I understand there are many more attributes to a team. But my belief in one guy has led me to lay the favorite.
I was high on the 49ers all season, and they won me a lot of money. I don’t have a good gut feeling on them anymore. It’s not a good reason to pick a side, but it’s my reason.
I’m not risking a lot on the Super Bowl, but I have bet the Chiefs -1. Better quarterback, experienced coach, more raw talent on the field. Give me Kansas City.
