Tonight the 52-8 Milwaukee Bucks travel to South Beach to face the fourth-placed Miami Heat. The Bucks are a perfect 8-0 straight up on back-to-backs. The Heat have struggled since the All-Star Break, ranking 19th at home through the last two weeks. In their previous ten games, Milwaukee has a NETRTG of 13.6, which nearly doubles the second-best team in the association. Miami has a NETRTG of almost zero. My biggest concern is that the Bucks have a lower rating on the road, while Miami has the best spread differential at home this season.
In my opinion, Miami’s current form outweighs their season results. Thus, I decided to lay Milwaukee Bucks -4 pregame. That’s regardless of whether Kris Middelton plays. Depending on how this game plays out early, I may look to double down in-game and put a little more on Bucks as the game progresses.