The New York Liberty are on a 7-game winning streak, marching into the playoffs as one of the top teams in the WNBA.
Their playoff position might even upgrade to the #1 seed if Las Vegas slips up in their remaining games. On the other hand, we have the Los Angeles Sparks.
With a record of 16-22, they are neck-to-neck with Chicago for the final spot in the playoffs. This game is a must-win for them.
Sparks vs. Liberty Lineups & Injuries
Projected Sparks Lineup: Azura Stevens, Jordin Canada, Karlie Samuelson, Layshia Clarendon, Nneka Ogwumike
Sparks Injuries: Chiney Ogwumike (Out), Lexie Brown (Out), Nia Clouden (Out)
Projected Liberty Lineup: Betnijah Laney, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot, Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu
Liberty Injuries: Courtney Vandersloot (Probable)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty Prediction
Now let’s look at some numbers. According to my model, the Sparks are projected to score around 77.8 points and the Liberty around 85, making a combined total of 162.8.
The model gives the Liberty an edge of -7.2. However, BetOnline places the odds at New York -13.5 with a total of 161.
In light of these figures, I’m leaning towards backing the Los Angeles Sparks +13.5.
It’s important to note that while the Liberty has a habit of going over, the Sparks don’t share this trait. But, considering the total set at 161 or more, it seems like a good idea to play over and bank on averages being met. So, I’m also betting Over 161.
While I hesitate to back the Sparks, the fact remains that they are still in the race for the final playoff spot.
The model predicts Liberty -7.2, but with odds reaching into the 14-range, I’m inclined to take the points and hope for the best.